To Storm or NOT to Storm

I find myself stuck in a state of disbelief at what I have seen in photos and what I have heard from family and friends regarding the devastation from Sandy. Although I talked about the storm at least a week in advance, then really tried to hit the dangers hard in subsequent posts or personal correspondence, I’m at a loss for words. I would talk to people in NJ about the possibility that a storm like this could occur and most of the time, people would either begrudgingly agree or even scoff at the idea. On Thursday, I told my friend John (a marine biologist in coastal NJ) that if there was ever a storm that could create a new inlet in the barrier islands, this was it. Little did I know the impact of what I was saying. . . Now, there is a new inlet in Mantoloking, NJ! This is one of the many shore communities that I hold near and dear to my heart and that heart breaks seeing the ruins left behind. I love what I do and I love the weather, but I will never wish this kind of disaster on anyone. I am with you all in NJ, NYC, and beyond in spirit as we move forward. I’m just thankful that most if not all of my friends and family are safe, though shaken by this storm.

A before and after picture of Mantoloking with a bridge that now goes nowhere.

Ok, enough reflection and now on to the next potential storm.

HPC Day 5 (Wednesday, 11/7) surface forecast issued on Friday afternoon.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Day 5 forecast above for Wednesday, 11/7, shows a coastal storm moving up the Mid-Atlantic and into New England (beyond this point). Although it would be nothing compared to Sandy, the storm could deepen to 990-985 mb, which would mean more strong wind and heavy rain from NC through DC and into NJ, NYC, and Southern New England. It could also mean more snow for the mountains. Right now, I give this a 35% chance of occurring as the map above suggests. The European model which received much press shows a potent storm, while the GFS model shows a slightly weaker storm and farther offshore.

I am not going to dive into specific right now, but I will monitor model trends into Sunday and will post a new blog entry tomorrow morning. I think it would be a good idea to prepare for a storm that could aggravate an already dire situation in NJ, NYC, CT, LI, and RI. Also, the disturbance that would cause this coastal storm is still off the coast of British Columbia, Canada. We have some time before the models converge on a confident solution.

Thanks for reading!

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