03/13/17 East Coast Storm Update

We are now within hours of the onset of our big East Coast snowstorm, but there have been some minor changes.  For one, the models have a storm that is farther west or closer to the coast. . .a negative for big snows closer to the coast.  The thermal profiles, time of year, and stronger storm (on the models) may cause some precipitation type problems for the I-95 corridor, NJ shore, and southeastern New England.  This update will not be much different from yesterday’s, but will account for these changes.

Bottom Line:

DC-Baltimore to coastal NJ:  The I-95 corridor may end up the dividing line between heavy snowfall and rain/sleet mix.  I don’t expect any freezing rain (typically tough to do in March), but DC up 95 to Baltimore to Wilmington, DE to Sandy Hook may see a few hours of sleet, possibly heavy.  All areas may see some thundersnow or thundersleet and increasing winds through the night. I’m not thinking it ever changes to pure rain near I-95, but closer to the Bay that may be the case, especially near Annapolis and from Toms River, NJ south, a change to heavy rain may occur.  North and West of I-95, heavy snow with the best banding in the deformation zone.  

Snow totals:  I like the National Weather Service maps below, but any delay to changeover could result in more snow, especially from Annapolis, DC, Baltimore, Wilmington, and Toms River on north.  My best guess:  DC area (5″-8″), Baltimore area (9″-12″), Toms River area (10″-12″), Monmouth County (10″-14″), Princeton area (15″-18″)

(*NOTE, sleet will likely cut into the totals I mention, but I’m trying to account for it.)

Start Time:  Around 6-7 pm near DC, 7-9 pm northern MD, 9-11 pm NJ, overnight farther north

The model snowfall maps below show some of the changes from yesterday, yet the GFS/Euro have been consistent, while the Canadian/UKMET have lesser snow near I-95 due to a closer storm and warm mid-levels.

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0000 UTC 03/13/17 GFS snowfall map ending 1800 UTC on 03/14/17 (courtesy of WxBell)
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0600 UTC 03/13/17 3 km NAM snowfall map ending 1800 UTC on 03/14/17 (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

The NWS snowfall maps are available below.  Please click on the individual maps to zoom in.

 

Thanks for reading and enjoy the storm!

 

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