Light Snow Event on the way!

It’s sad when I’m excited about a light snow event, but thus is the winter of 2016-2017.  The pattern this winter has featured cold arriving when the storm track was not conducive, to very warm periods that have left snow lovers crying in our cereal bowls (or while drinking some fine craft beer).  But alas, we have our first clipper from Sunday night into Monday morning.

Bottom Line:  A light snow event starting Sunday late evening and ending Monday morning (mid-morning MD, midday DE-NJ).  Southern NJ may get the better snows (3″-4″) as this small storm strengthens, while the I-95 corridor will see closer to 1″, 2″ east of there, and 1-3″ central NJ, including coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties.  Any mesoscale banding could make things more interesting with isolated higher amounts.

Discussion:  The 0000 UTC models came in with a bit more moisture and dynamics to produce a quick dusting to 2″ of snow from DC up through Ocean County, NJ.  Some parts of the Eastern Shore of MD and DE will see closer to 2″-3″.  Interestingly enough, the NAM was rather enthusiastic with amounts in the latter areas approaching 6-7″ or more, while providing the I-95 corridor with 2″-3″ and up to 5″-6″ from southern NJ up to about Point Pleasant, NJ.

For your convenience, I’ve included a few of the model snow maps below, but I caution you that these are only one possible model solution per model and the snow-to-liquid ratio is 10:1.  Another factor to consider is the potential for banding, which models have a tough time resolving.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nj_9
0000 UTC GFS accumulated snowfall valid at 0000 UTC (7 pm EST 01/30/17) on 01/31/17.  (Courtesy of Weatherbell)
nam_3hr_snow_acc_nj_17
0600 UTC NAM (12 km) accumulated snowfall valid at 0600 UTC (1 am EST) on 01/31/17.  (Courtesy of Weatherbell)
hires_snow_nj_34
0600 UTC NAM (4 km) accumulated snowfall valid at 1500 UTC (11 am EST) on 01/30/17. (Courtesy of Weatherbell)

The ECMWF (European) model (can’t show it) was closer to the GFS with about 1″-2″ near and east of the I-95 corridor with southern NJ getting closer to 2″-3″ and the Eastern Shore of MD to central DE getting around 4″.  The Canadian was also in the 1″-2″ of snow area wide.

The National Weather Service (NWS) snowfall forecast maps are below.

stormtotalsnow_lwx_20170129_4am
The Sterling NWS WFO snowfall map for 01/29/17 – 01/30/17.
stormtotalsnow_phx_20170129_4am
The Mt. Holly NWS WFO snowfall map valid from 01/29/17 – 01/30/17.

I’ll update later today if there are changes to the forecast.

Thanks for reading!

Leave a Reply