Heavy Rain for Louisiana. . .winter storm late next week?

So, it’s been two years since I last wrote a blog entry here and tonight I thought. . .gee, maybe I should start this up again!  Well, the weather is certainly going to provide entertainment (for some) and potential headaches (for the rest).

Louisiana and the Gulf Coast:

Southeast TX, southern LA, southern MS, and southern AL to the FL panhandle are doing to experience heavy rainfall with a slight chance of excessive rainfall over the next 1-3 days, with much of it falling in the next 24 hours.  General amounts of 2″-5″ will occur from southern LA to southern AL.  The three day totals may exceed 6″-7″ in spots, so be aware of potential flooding in these areas.

24-hour Day 1 QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) issed at 0831 UTC on 12/31/16
Day 1-3 QPF issued at 0830 UTC on 12/31/16
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued at 0841 UTC on 12/31/16

Another threat will be the potential of severe thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across much of TX, LA, and MS.  The main threats appear to be strong wind gusts and possible tornadoes.

Day 2 Convective Outlook issued at 0555 UTC on 12/31/16
Day 3 Convective Outlook issued at 0825 UTC on 12/31/16

Arctic Intrusion and Potential Winter Storm?

The next week will feature mild conditions moving up the East Coast with rain and possible thunderstorms followed by a rather potent front that will usher in another arctic airmass for much of the country (coast to coast).  This outbreak has the potential to match or even exceed the mid-December outbreak.  Models have started hinting at a potential winter storm, but the model runs vary from ice, heavy snow, to even. . .nothing.  This threat is 6-7 days away, so expect many more simulated “storms” until we know anything concrete.

Thanks for reading!

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