Update on the Thanksgiving Snow Threat for the East Coast

10:45 pm Update:  The models are coming in a bit warmer, so now I am worrying that most of the snow totals in the DC-Baltimore area are in fact too high.  Might end up as more rain and wet, non-sticking snow.  Regardless, it’ll be a pretty miserable travel day.

Well, my initial thoughts of 3″-6″ maybe have been a bit too bullish for November, but I still think there will be a bit more snow from DC up to Baltimore and Wilmington than is currently portrayed in most markets.  That said, this is a more run-of-the-mill nor’easter/coastal storm with rain transitioning to snow (west to east) through the day tomorrow.  This will most likely cause problems on the roads as even the mention of snow tends to cause accidents!

I have compiled a rundown of snowfall forecasts from the National Weather Service offices in Sterling, VA, Mt. Holly, NJ, Islip, NY, and Taunton, MA.

Snowfall Forecast from the Sterling, VA NWS weather forecast office valid 11/25/14.
Snowfall Forecast from the Sterling, VA NWS weather forecast office valid 11/25/14.

Note:  I think the area of <1″ might be closer to 1″-3″ of snow depending on the precipitation rate and temperatures.  It has tried to snow a couple times already this year, so we appear to be in a pattern that might be more favorable to snow over rain, but warmer temperatures near the surface might limit storm totals.

Snowfall Forecast from the Mt. Holly, NJ NWS weather forecast office valid on 11/25/14.
Snowfall Forecast from the Mt. Holly, NJ NWS weather forecast office valid on 11/25/14.

Note:  This looks like a good first guess to me.  There might be a touch more near the coast in Monmouth and Ocean counties.  Rain starts in the morning with a slow transition to snow from west to east through the day.  Winds will pick up with gusts over 35 mph possible.

Snowfall Forecast from the Islip, NY NWS weather forecast office valid on 11/25/14.
Snowfall Forecast from the Islip, NY NWS weather forecast office valid on 11/25/14.

Note:  Again, this forecast looks pretty good to me.  Rain transitioning to snow from west to east during the day.  Could be heavy at times and winds will pick up during the afternoon.

Snowfall Forecast from the Taunton, MA NWS weather forecast office valid on 11/25/14.
Snowfall Forecast from the Taunton, MA NWS weather forecast office valid on 11/25/14.

Note:  Looks good to me here and I’m a bit jealous of interior New England.

Final thoughts for tonight:  The storm is a quick mover and it’s an early season event.  For those wanting more snow, give it time as I think this winter will have plenty of opportunities.  Be safe out there and enjoy your Thanksgiving!

I will try to post tomorrow if there are any significant changes.

Thanks for reading!

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