And the storm has begun. . .

So, the snow started here in Elkridge, MD about 3 hours earlier than expected.  Since that time, I have measured 3.3″, which is above the 1″-2″ forecasted for my area.  It looks like my 2″-4″ forecast for the Baltimore area is in jeopardy of being too low.  We might end up with 3″-5″ total, but don’t be surprised if some places north and east get a bit more.

Sterling, VA NWS snowfall forecast valid for 1/2/14-1/3/14.
Sterling, VA NWS snowfall forecast valid for 1/2/14-1/3/14.

The above image is the Sterling National Weather Service snowfall forecast as of earlier this evening.  The area along the I-95 corridor seems too low as we have already surpassed those numbers.  Northeast of Baltimore appears to be in line for an easy 5″-7″.  Expect winds to pick up overnight with gusts approaching 55-60 mph by daybreak.  Blowing and drifting snow will be an issue tomorrow morning along with temperatures in the teens.

As for NJ, my earlier upgrade on totals may need to go up yet again, but for now I’ll keep it at 8″-10″ near the coast with some spots getting closer to 12″.  Blowing and drifting will become an issue as wind gusts increase to 50-60 mph into the early morning hours.  Again, temperatures will be very cold in the morning, so be careful!

The Mt. Holly NWS snowfall forecast valid for 1/2/14-1/3/14.
The Mt. Holly, NJ NWS snowfall forecast valid for 1/2/14-1/3/14.

The above snowfall map plays it out nicely and I see no reason to disagree with it.  Again, closer to the coast there may be more than 12″ in spots.

Islip, NY NWS snowfall forecast valid for 1/2/14-1/3/14
Islip, NY NWS snowfall forecast valid for 1/2/14-1/3/14

For northeast NJ, NYC, and Long Island, the totals on this map look good, though some areas might end up higher.  This storm already appears to be exceeding my expectations and the main energy is just getting to the Appalachians west of the DC area.  What keeps this storm from going wild is that there is no blocking near Greenland (or weak blocking at best).  The big winner will most likely be the Boston area with 12″-18″.

Special note:  Temperatures on Saturday morning will be the coldest in years (at least since 2009 in many areas), so be aware.  From DC-Baltimore up to NJ, temperatures may settle around 0-10F, but as you move farther north, below 0 temperatures are expected.

I’ll update as needed on Facebook.  My next post may be over the weekend to talk about the next storm and even colder air mass.

Stay safe and thanks for reading!!!!

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