This will be quick for now as I wait for the evening model runs to come in. I’m not going to change my ideas for the DC-Baltimore area. I have never been one to change my ideas with every model run and what I saw today with some of the meteorologists in the area baffles me. Sure, I may be wrong, but if I change my thoughts every 6 hours, then my own confidence as a meteorologist comes into question. The point is, I still don’t see a reason to make a change in my forecast from last night.
Now, the forecast for NJ up to NYC and southern New England may be changing. I still think NJ sees a good deal of rain from the system, but as the coastal low strengthens, cold air will be drawn south and this could change the rain to snow by Wednesday evening. Parts of NJ could see 5″-6″ (mainly northern coastal areas), while the rest of the state may see closer to 3″. This may change depending on how things materialize farther south and I’ll do my best to keep you updated.
The bottom line. . .
Central VA: Expect rain slowly changing to snow with accumulations ranging from 1″-2″ south of Fredericksburg to 4″-6″ as you get towards DC. The big winner in this is western VA and WV with amounts that could exceed 18″-25″ in spots!
DC-Baltimore: Some rain to begin, but changing over to snow after 4 am Wednesday morning. Accumulations starting out around 6″-8″, more to the west, less to the south. Would not be surprised to see areas along the I-95 corridor breaking the 12″ mark with the potential for thundersnow and strong winds. Power outages could be possible!
Coastal NJ: Rain to start and could get heavy at times. Winds increasing to 30-40 mph with gusts 50-60 mph or higher. Coast flooding could be an issue with early estimates of 2′-4′, but check your local NWS office for more details. Rain should change to snow Wednesday evening with a quick thumping of 2″-4″ possible. If the model trends continue north, then more snow will be possible.
Feel free to ask questions and thanks for reading!