This is going to be a short post today and I wanted to start with the NHC forecast above. The difference with this forecast is that the track has been nudged west and hurricane watches have been posted that include New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, and Pensacola.
As you can see above (click on image for animation), Isaac has had a tough time re-organizing since crossing Haiti which is good news for the Florida Keys and South Florida. Heavy rain and gusty winds will affect these areas through the day into tonight as Isaac moves through the lower Keys. Current intensity is 65 mph with a chance of strengthening prior to or during its movement through the Keys. For this reason, Hurricane Warnings are posted!
The early morning track guidance for Isaac shows a bit more spread than last night’s model runs, but the focus is still on the LA/MS/AL coastlines. It’s not important to focus on the exact track at this point as I expect Isaac to be a significant hurricane in the Gulf. It looks increasingly better for the northern peninsula of Florida and a bit worse for New Orleans to Mobile.
Bottom line: If you live anywhere from Baton Rouge to Pensacola, it’s time to prepare! The majority of Florida will see increasing winds and heavy rains today through tomorrow with the possibility of tornadoes. The worst of the weather will stay in the Gulf until Tuesday/Wednesday time frame.
I will try to post this evening with more updates. Thanks for reading!