No Changes on Isaac. . .for now.

After looking at the 00z track guidance for Isaac, I am not going to change my forecast ideas. I have been saying that a landfall (after the Keys) would probably occur between Baton Rouge, LA and Panama City, FL. I am starting to lean more towards the western portion of that window.

00z 08/26/12 track guidance for Isaac.

As you can see in the guidance above, there has been a shift towards the west by the models. This puts areas from New Orleans to Biloxi in a bad spot. It is still early, but it looks as though the end game for Isaac is going to be very tough to forecast. This puts the Florida peninsula is a better spot, but does not mean they are out of the woods. South Florida and the Keys will still receive strong winds and heavy rains through tomorrow night with tropical storm conditions spreading north up the peninsula on Monday. The strongest winds will stay over the Gulf.

GOES-13 “Rainbow” infrared animation of Isaac.

I included an animation (click on the image) of Isaac above to show the thunderstorms starting to intensify north of Cuba as the center of the storm is over water. This should allow for intensification in the next 24 hours, possibly bringing a hurricane to the lower Keys, including Key West.

I hope to have an update tomorrow morning. Thanks for reading!

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