Active Tropics!

I came into work at BWI this morning and decided to look at the various tropical basins around the world (a normal practice of mine). I knew we had Hurricane Carlotta making landfall last night near Acapulco, Mexico yesterday with a maximum intensity of ~105 mph. Although not the strongest storm to make landfall in Mexico, it is a very heavy rain producer and at last check, 2 fatalities have been reported.

RGB image of Tropical Depression Carlotta over Mexico as of 11:15 am EDT on 06/16/12.

As you can see from the image above, Carlotta has diminished in intensity considerably since last night as it interacts with the higher terrain of Mexico and loses it’s heat source of the Eastern Pacific. Carlotta will continue to rain out over Mexico over the next 48 hours with some rain totals approaching 15 inches!

Meanwhile, across the Pacific a beast was born a few days ago by the name of Guchol. Guchol is now a super typhoon with winds at 130 knots or 150 mph as of 8 a.m. EDT. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Guchol to intensify further to 150 knots or 175 mph by tomorrow evening!

“Rainbow” enhancement satellite image of Super Typhoon Guchol as of 11:15 am EDT on 06/16/12.

Looking at the image above, I would say the current intensity of Guchol is higher, closer to 140 knots or 160 mph at this time. There is nothing to impede the storms progress as it is forecasted to at least graze Okinawa on Monday. As Guchol recurves into the westerlies, we may feel the impact here in the U.S. in about 10 days with a developing trough in the Eastern U.S. This would bring unsettled weather and cooler conditions as we end June. More on this later!

JTWC forecast for Super Typhoon Guchol valid at 12z or 8 am EDT on 06/16/12.

Thanks for reading!

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