First weekly forecast for 05/28-06/02

As I was writing my last blog, I decided I would issue weekly forecasts on Mondays as I enjoy a challenge and we’ll see how well I do. This is the first installment. Feel free to make comments or suggestions as I would like to make this blog more interactive.

Tropical Depression Beryl

Radar image of TD Beryl on 05/28/12.

The above radar image shows tropical depression Beryl spinning in northern Florida providing some very heavy, though beneficial rainfall. This part of FL and most of GA have been experiencing a multi-year drought and this is much needed rainfall. Beryl will most likely feel the effects of an upstream disturbance and will make a sharp turn to the northeast in the next 12-18 hours. Where does it go from here?

18z 05/28 model guidance showing the potential tracks of TD Beryl.

Beryl will straddle the southeast US coastline passing cities like Savannah, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, on out to Cape Hatteras over the next 48 hours. The official National Hurricane Center forecast follows this logic with a possible regeneration of the depression into a tropical storm as it move over or very near some very warm water. The main threat from this point is heavy rainfall and maybe a few strong wind gusts.

The remainder of the tropics look to quiet down as a disturbance near Cuba fizzles out.

Mid-Atlantic (PA, NJ, DE, MD, VA)

The recent heat of this holiday weekend will last into Tuesday before slowly being beaten down by a procession of cold fronts this week. Thunderstorms will become more numerous tomorrow afternoon into the evening as the first front approaches. Beryl and her effects should stay far enough south to not be an issue, but there might be some periphery showers on Wednesday. Late in the week, a stronger storm system will approach the region with the threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Meanwhile, temperatures will relax towards seasonal averages (highs in the upper 70s, low 80s).

12z GFS forecast for 8 am EDT on Saturday 06/02. Note the heavier rainfall forecast for much of the Mid-Atlantic (6-hourly total from 2 am to 8 am on Saturday morning with totals approaching 0.75″).

I do want to point out that rainfall has been below normal in much of MD, DE, and NJ over the last few months. Average rainfall deficits are around 6″-7″ and this could start to pose a problem soon if the pattern doesn’t change.

Gulf Coast to Southeast US

The central Gulf coast will see little change from recent days with rain chances increasing towards late week due to seabreeze fronts off the Gulf. Temperatures are hot early, but relaxing a bit later. For FL up to NC: Beryl’s effects will slowly wane towards mid-week with FL being left in the return of the rainy season. Many areas need the rainfall still (minus far southeast FL), so I don’t see major issues. A strong front will attempt an approach into GA, SC, and NC by late week with the threat for organized thunderstorm activity.


After a hot weekend in much of the region, temperatures are going to cool down substantially to below normal around midweek. There will be some hit and miss thunderstorms to start the week with a more organized system for later in the week (mentioned above for the other regions). Severe weather could be an issue by Thursday with the possibility of a tornado outbreak becoming a real threat.

I will try to update everyone on the severe weather potential as we get closer to the event.

Happy Memorial Day!

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