So, winter in fact does exist and we will start feeling it soon. . .but for how long?
The above map is the snowfall forecast for Wednesday, 02/08/12. This is a small system, but this year the small systems have provided the winter weather. It doesn’t look to be a big event with most areas seeing 1″ or less of snow. Farther north into NJ, you might see up to 1/2″ to maybe 1″, but it’s suspect at best right now. I’d like to see how the system looks going into tomorrow.
The above images show the 18z North America Model precipitation and sea-level pressure forecasts valid at 7 pm and 10 pm tomorrow, 02/09/12. Below those images is the 18z Global Forecast System model forecast valid at 7 pm tomorrow. Both models show total liquid equivalent of precipitation around 0.15″-0.30″. This amount of precipitation coupled with temperatures around 33-34F while it’s snowing means light amounts mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. I would agree with the amounts I presented at the beginning of this entry with maximum amounts around 2″.
Where do we go from here you ask? There are signs in the models of a cold and possibly stormier period in the near-future, but I will wait to report on that. The first attempt at true winter is this weekend for most areas, including the Gulf Coast.
Side Note: Apparently the tropics don’t know what the calendar says because we had an attempt at a system developing near western Cuba on Sunday-Monday and today I noticed a system southwest of the Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. Neither of these systems developed, but I think it shows how high amounts of moisture is poised to interact with any potential storms. Maybe this is a clue on how winter will end? Time will tell.
I hope to have another post the end of this week, unless tomorrow’s storm becomes a bigger deal.
Thanks for reading!