Very quick post on Irene before bed

The afternoon model runs did go towards my idea, but I caution that it’s only a couple more model runs. Until Irene gets closer to the NC coast, it’s all speculation. The 8 pm EDT advisory from NHC has Irene as a 105 knot (120 mph) CAT 3 hurricane. It is moving between Long Island and Rum Cay in the Bahamas at around 10 knots (12 mph) to the northwest. The 12z Euro had a track similar to the 1821 Hurricane at 954 mb (roughly CAT 2/3) that passed over eastern NC, over the Delmarva, up what is now the Garden State Parkway and into NYC. It is important to stress that this track is a long shot, but not impossible. I think tomorrow is a good day to prepare in the event the storm makes a closer pass than the current forecast track. As it is, the NHC forecast (below) is close enough to cause tropical storm force winds up the Mid-Atlantic and hurricane force winds into Long Island and southeast New England.

The 8 pm forecast track of Irene from NHC

I’ve included the 00z track guidance which is in line with the NHC forecast below. Another update tomorrow.

00z track guidance for Irene on 08/25/11

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