The afternoon model runs did go towards my idea, but I caution that it’s only a couple more model runs. Until Irene gets closer to the NC coast, it’s all speculation. The 8 pm EDT advisory from NHC has Irene as a 105 knot (120 mph) CAT 3 hurricane. It is moving between Long Island and Rum Cay in the Bahamas at around 10 knots (12 mph) to the northwest. The 12z Euro had a track similar to the 1821 Hurricane at 954 mb (roughly CAT 2/3) that passed over eastern NC, over the Delmarva, up what is now the Garden State Parkway and into NYC. It is important to stress that this track is a long shot, but not impossible. I think tomorrow is a good day to prepare in the event the storm makes a closer pass than the current forecast track. As it is, the NHC forecast (below) is close enough to cause tropical storm force winds up the Mid-Atlantic and hurricane force winds into Long Island and southeast New England.
I’ve included the 00z track guidance which is in line with the NHC forecast below. Another update tomorrow.